The Inaccuracy of the Claim '30-Year Prefabricated Panel Buildings Collapse'

The claim that '30-year prefabricated panel buildings collapse' is inaccurate. The design lifespan of prefabricated panel buildings is not fixed at 30 years; the actual lifespan is influenced by factors such as maintenance and disasters.

1. No National Standard Basis for a '30-Year Lifespan'
The design service life of ordinary buildings is 50 years, as explicitly required by national regulations. In the 1970s and 1980s, some manufacturers promoted prefabricated panel products by verbally claiming they could last for 30 years. However, this was merely a marketing tactic providing a minimum guarantee under ideal conditions, not a mandatory scrapping lifespan. The design service life serves as a theoretical benchmark for structural safety, and the actual lifespan may be longer or shorter depending on usage conditions and maintenance.

2. Actual Lifespan Determined by Maintenance and Assessment
The design service life is not equivalent to the actual lifespan, nor is it a mandatory scrapping lifespan. Under normal maintenance and in the absence of significant disaster damage, the structure of prefabricated panel buildings can be safely used without extensive repairs. What truly determines whether a building can continue to be inhabited is the building safety assessment report issued by a professional institution. If the assessment result is Class A, B, or C (non-dangerous buildings), the building can continue to be used through repairs and reinforcement; only when assessed as Class D (dangerous buildings) does the demolition process need to be initiated.

3. Relationship Between Inherent Shortcomings of Prefabricated Panel Buildings and Building Age
Prefabricated panel buildings have inherent shortcomings such as relatively weak seismic performance and a tendency for panel joints to crack and leak water. As the building age increases, aging damage (such as concrete carbonation and steel reinforcement corrosion) may gradually become apparent. However, the severity of these issues varies from building to building and cannot be simply divided by a '30-year' threshold. For example, regularly maintained buildings may have an extended service life, while buildings that have been neglected for a long time may develop safety hazards prematurely.

4. Policy Orientation: Based on Assessment Results
In May 2026, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that the disposal of prefabricated panel buildings nationwide follows the principle of 'retention, renovation, demolition, and prioritizing retention'. This means that unless a building is assessed as a Class D dangerous building, it will not be forcibly demolished simply because it has reached a '30-year' age. The policy focuses more on improving building safety through repairs and reinforcement rather than simply drawing a line based on time.