Price Trend of Prefabricated Single-Story Houses

Currently, the prices of prefabricated single-story houses in China are generally showing a divergent trend, with third- and fourth-tier cities facing downward pressure, while first-tier cities are experiencing a slower rate of decline due to policy influences. The future trend will be jointly affected by costs, policies, and market supply and demand.

Domestic Market: Accelerated Exit of Old Prefabricated Houses, Significant Price Pressure

Domestic prefabricated single-story houses (such as early prefabricated panel houses) are undergoing renovation or demolition and reconstruction due to issues such as building aging and safety hazards. For example, some prefabricated panel houses in urban old residential communities built before the end of 2000 have been included in the demolition scope due to structural problems. During this process, the supply-demand imbalance in the prefabricated house market in third- and fourth-tier cities is significant, with the inventory clearance period exceeding 50 months (i.e., it takes more than 4 years to sell after being listed), and some owners are still unable to close deals even after reducing prices by hundreds of thousands of yuan. In contrast, first-tier cities have seen a delay in the pace of price reductions due to policy relaxations (such as adjustments to purchase restrictions and loan restrictions), but rigid expenditures such as land costs and taxes still restrict the space for price declines.

Overseas Market: Strong Demand but Not Directly Reflecting Domestic Trends

China's exported prefabricated buildings (such as expandable container houses) are in high demand overseas, with a single unit priced at approximately $30,000 (including freight and tariffs), favored for their low prices, short delivery times, and complete configurations. However, the booming overseas market is mainly due to the high local construction costs, forming a contrast with China's industrialized production model for prefabricated houses, and does not directly reflect the price trends of domestic single-story prefabricated houses.

Costs and Policies: Limited Room for Reduction in Construction Costs, Price Trends Vary by City

The cost of cement prefabricated houses promoted in Henan can be as low as 300 yuan per square meter (excluding foundation and installation). However, construction costs account for a limited proportion of commercial housing prices, with land, taxes, and policy factors having a greater impact on overall housing prices. In the future, the popularization of prefabricated houses may reduce construction costs, but the overall price trend of domestic housing still needs to be viewed on a city-by-city basis:

• First-tier cities: Policy relaxations (such as easing purchase restrictions and reducing down payment ratios) may delay the pace of price reductions, but in the long run, they will still be affected by land supply and population flows.
• Other cities: During the market adjustment period, prices may further bottom out, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities with severe supply-demand imbalances, where the prices of prefabricated houses may accelerate their decline along with the renovation of old houses.

In conclusion, the price trend of domestic prefabricated single-story houses is jointly influenced by the renovation of old houses, market supply-demand divergence, and policy regulations. It is difficult to form a unified trend in the short term, and a comprehensive judgment needs to be made based on city tiers and specific policies.