Prefabricated Panel Houses Not to Be Demolished
The reasons why prefabricated panel houses are not to be demolished mainly include the following points:
Not all prefabricated panel houses are dangerous buildings. Nationwide, only 15% of prefabricated panel buildings have been identified as Grade D dangerous buildings, meaning that 85% of prefabricated panel houses do not meet the criteria for mandatory demolition. Although the reference lifespan of prefabricated panel components is 30 years, the design standard for the entire building is usually 50 years. As long as the foundation is stable and there are no cracks in the beams and columns, such houses can still be safely inhabited after reinforcement and do not need to be demolished.
The policy guidance focuses on renovation. The 2026 urban renewal policy clearly states that prefabricated panel houses should be steadily managed and renovated rather than demolished in a one-size-fits-all manner. Grade D dangerous housing will be demolished more quickly, but other housing will be dealt with through reinforcement, renovation, or original-site reconstruction and other methods. The policy emphasizes 'safety first' but does not make demolition the only option. The classified management model reduces the space for widespread demolition.
The cost of demolition is high. If more than 60 million prefabricated panel houses across the country are demolished, the conservative estimated cost is 3.7 trillion yuan, equivalent to the total GDP of Shenzhen in 2024. The funding sources rely on a model of 'government subsidies + corporate participation + resident contributions'. However, residents face significant financial pressure to contribute, and when local finances are tight, project progress is slow, making large-scale demolition difficult to implement.
It is difficult to coordinate residents' interests. Older residents have emotional attachments to their houses and are unwilling to relocate; the younger generation looks forward to new houses; merchants are concerned about the loss of business income; and some residents make unreasonable demands. For example, in a certain community in Shanghai, more than 1,800 household owners needed to hold 47 coordination meetings and negotiate for half a year before reaching an agreement. The complexity of interest coordination further hinders the demolition process.
The house structures and historical backgrounds are complex. Prefabricated panel houses built in different eras have significant structural differences, and the difficulty and cost of demolition vary. Some houses are 'housing reform houses' with complex property rights, making it difficult to unify compensation plans. In addition, demolition may affect urban transportation, greening, and other plans, further increasing the operational difficulty.
The governance logic shifts to precisely eliminating hidden dangers. Two residential buildings of the same era and structure may have different safety conditions due to differences in foundation and maintenance status. If demolition is judged solely based on the structural name, houses with reinforcement value may be scrapped prematurely, or the governance of truly dangerous buildings may be delayed. Therefore, precisely assessing hidden dangers has become a more reasonable governance approach.
